The SBP Archives - Your less than frequent dose of SBP!

I was actually surprised to talk to my co-workers who have not given up hope, and are surprisingly optimistic of the Senators' chances.

A lot of them think the Sens have yet to play their best game and have not played to their potential. I'm of the opinion the Ducks, after watching game 2, they are just too strong an opponent and that the Sens' best effort still cannot beat Anaheim.

Was I too quick to say Ottawa's chances for the Stanley Cup are pretty much done?

What's going to happen Saturday and Monday back home in Ottawa? One of the guys on The Score guaranteed a Sens win Saturday.

What do you think will happen?

Don't let that score fool you.

This series is over.

Now before everyone accuses me of jumping off the bandwagon, let me tell you why I feel this way. Ottawa had somewhat of an excuse for game 1. They were 9 days removed from playing a game, they were in a different time zone, they were playing a team they hadn't played all year and were against a playing style they haven't encountered before. The rust is supposed to be gone, they know what to expect, so they should have been a better team. And that didn't happen.

They were outshot 31-16. Almost 2 to 1! It seemed the entire game, with the exception of the 5-on-3 in the 1st period, the entire play was in Ottawa's end. Emery was unbelievable, giving his team a shot to steal a game and go back to Ottawa with a 1-1 split. But his teammates were terrible. Anaheim has completely dominated Ottawa the same way the Senators have dominated the three previous teams they faced this spring.

The pizza line was awful. Daniel Alfredsson led both teams with 6 giveaways during the game, and it was very frustrating trying these miracle passing plays on the Ducks' blue line when they should be dumping the puck hard and going after it. How many turnovers will it take before they figure it out? They should have learned after game 1, but they continued their horrible passing plays into game 2.

I think the only upside for Ottawa, aside from Emery, was they actually hit and were physical for the most part. But they can't figure out the Ducks' defense and system. They don't look like the team that won the Eastern Conference, and all the pressure in the world is on them, because if they lose the next game and fall 3-0 they aren't winning any Stanley Cup this year. Here's a stat for you: Teams in the Stanley Cup final down 2-0 have lost 39 out of 42 series.

It hurts to say it, but you gotta call a spade a spade. Anaheim is doing everything right and Ottawa isn't. I don't like the Senators chances at all anymore.

Have you ever sat down to play cards, confident in your abilities, putting your chips in with the best of it, but no matter how you play or how you're supposed to be the favourite, you lose every hand you're involved in to someone who has absolutely no idea what they're doing?

You re-raise with pocket Kings, you sucker your opponent to play their trash hand only cause they're suited, you even force them to put their entire tournament life with an approximate 79% chance of busting them out, but they suck out their needed cards and take you out instead?

It's painful, and if you play regularly it will happen to you. But you know what the best remedy is when it happens to you?

Invite them to your next game.

Poker pro and multi World Series of Poker bracelet winner Phil Ivey sums it up nicely, "My little sister can beat me". The reason for that is that while the pros' advantage lies with exploiting weaknesses and knowing odds, they have absolutely no control over a 2-outer your opponent hit on the river.

But in the long run, you WILL come out ahead. You can't second guess the decisions you made where it was a simple case of a miracle card knocking you out of contention. It's a paradox: You made the correct decision, but you ended up losing. It happens all the time.

But most of the time, it won't happen. Most the time, when you put your Kings up against 7-10 suited, you will win.

79% of the time.

It was a shame a brilliant performance by Ray Emery went to waste tonight.

But, the better team won the opening game of the Stanley Cup finals, and after Ottawa rebounded from a sub-par first period with a strong outing in the second with a 2-1 lead, Anaheim took over. I mean, that third period wasn't really close. They were outshot 14-7 in the final frame and that was the difference. It was puzzling to see so much play in Ottawa's end, for Ottawa's past three rounds they have dictated play and were usually on the offensive. But tonight they were on the heels and Anaheim made them pay.

There are still some positives they can take from this game. Their powerplay is still clicking, going for 2 for 7 tonight. Despite being outshot 32-20, they kept the game close. But they will have to adjust their play to compete. They will have to try to match Anaheim's physicality as much as possible. Murray seems to lean on Redden and Meszaros more than the other tandems, but I think he needs to give Volchenkov and Phillips more ice time as they are the more physical of the pairings. And they have to keep things simple: I saw too many turnovers with their attempts to go for the fancy plays instead of dumping and chasing like they should.

The visiting team's goal when they are on the road for the first two games is to split the first two games and come home with home ice advantage. This is the first time Ottawa has lost the first game in these playoffs but they have shown they can bounce back from these setbacks. In their 16th game, this is only their fourth loss. I am hoping Sens fans aren't proclaiming the sky is falling tomorrow. This will be a long series and Ottawa should be fine to rebound and take game 2.

It has been too long a wait to get this Stanley Cup finals series started.

But our Christmas presents will be opened starting tomorrow. Hard to believe it's been almost two months since the Senators opened the playoffs against the Pittsburgh Penguins. It just shows you that the Stanley Cup is truly the most difficult championship to win in pro sports.

So let's compare the two teams:

Forwards: I'll give an edge to Ottawa here. Simple to figure out: Check out the scoring leaders, and Ottawa has 3 of the top 4 in Spezza, Alfredsson and Heatley. Ottawa has a little more depth, but not by much. Where Anaheim makes up for lack of pure skill is their physicality. They have pounded every opponent they've faced, but I like Ottawa's overall resilience to new challenges. They have overcome youth, defence and speed in beating the Penguins, Devils and Sabres. Now it's strength, and I think the pizza line will continue to work their magic. I also think players like Mike Comrie and Antoine Vermette, who have been somewhat snakebitten lately, will get out of their funks and starting netting some goals.

Defence: As a 6-man unit, I like Ottawa, but the trio of Chris Pronger, Scott Niedermayer and Francois Beauchemin are probably the biggest strength of the Anaheim Ducks. They will be assigned the task of shutting down Ottawa's big guns, and coach Randy Carlyle is not afraid to give them big minutes, as they average 30 minutes or so per game. This might work in Ottawa's favour if they can also get their secondary scoring going, as they will primarily be on the ice when Ottawa's big three is playing.

Goaltending: J.S. Giguere is a former Conn Smythe winner and has more experience than Ray Emery, so based on past performance he probably gets the edge. However, Emery has answered his critics every time a challenge has been put towards him, out-duelling Martin Brodeur and Ryan Miller. I think he can rise to the occasion one more time.

Special teams: This is where the Senators will have to capitalize on if they are going to win the series. Anaheim is known for giving up many powerplays as their physical style of play results in many penalties being called. Ottawa's powerplay has been clicking all playoffs and they should continue to do so in this round. Their penalty killing has also been top notch, as Buffalo could only score when they had 5-on-3 advantages.

Ottawa just seems like a team of destiny. They have been playing their best hockey of the season at the right time, playing with confidence and expecting to come out on top. With their dedication to playing smart & responsible hockey, putting the hard hats on every night, I really think the Ducks have the mentality they're about to face the best team in the NHL. Does this mean it will be easy? Of course not. But I really think this is Ottawa's time. So far these playoffs, I correctly guessed they winner of each series. Hopefully I can bat 1.000 with this prediction:

Sens in six.

GO SENS GO!

I shouldn't laugh at other people's misfortunes, but since they wanted to lay misfortune at my Sens' doorstep, they get what's coming to them. Here are some shots of the players from Buffalo calling it a season & heading back home to think about how they got annihilated by the mighty mighty Senators:






Put that coffee down Zubrus! Coffee is for CLOSERS. Ha-ha!

It is really crazy that I haven't gone to one playoff game this year.

Previously, I've been to at least one playoff game every season Ottawa has made the playoffs since 2000. And I've also had the "honour" of being present for every home elimination game where Ottawa was, well, eliminated. Leafs over Ottawa in 2000 in 6. Sabres over Ottawa in 5 in 2006. And of course, the on-the-glass-seats for the heartbreaking game 7 loss to the New Jersey Devils in the Conference Finals in 2003.

Citing fiscal responsibility, and not to mention dumping enough cash on my Las Vegas and Newfoundland trips, I resisted the temptation to buy tickets for this year's playoffs. I had a moment of weakness where I pursued 100 level tickets for game 3 of the Sabres series on Ebay and they could have been mine, but I could not find a dance partner to go with and had to let them go.

With the Sens making the finals...now it's just a must that I go to at least one game. I tried getting on capitaltickets.ca to order the few family fan zone tix they had for sale today. With 4 windows open trying to get in, no luck. Phones were jammed. And after some time had passed, the message "no more tickets available at this time" popped up. Boo!

With me supporting the Sens during the tough times, now that they've strung together a few victories it's only just to witness the spectacle of a Stanley Cup final game while they're winning. There are so many bandwagon fans hopping on board who haven't even seen a regular season game this year who scored tickets and are heading out to watch. Boo!

I could dole out the huge amount of cash scalpers are asking but I can't justify $1500 for a 100 level ticket. For a poker tournament sure, but not this! :)

Sigh. I'll keep checking capitaltickets periodically and hope to get lucky. Cross your fingers for me! It could be a once in a lifetime experience.

It isn't Pirates of the Caribbean. Or Die Hard. Or Rush Hour. The movie I want to see the most is Michael Moore's latest documentary, Sicko.

Sicko recently had its debut at the Cannes film festival, and it was a smash hit. And what's more astounding is that not just liberals are embracing the film, but Michael Moore is reporting himself that critics who opposed his politics actually wept during the screening and are fully supporting his film. As good as Bowling for Columbine and Fahrenheit 9/11 were, Sicko is being touted as perhaps his best work.

Of course, the US government isn't welcoming this attack on their health care system with open arms. They are actually considering pressing charges on Michael Moore for bringing 9/11 workers to Cuba to receive health care that their own country denied them. I hope they do pursue this, because it will just highlight how pathetic their health care system is if their own citizens have to flee the country to receive medical treatment. Maybe it will open the doors for universal health care for US citizens.

Here's a three minute CNN clip on the Cannes premiere that also shows some clips from Sicko:

Will it screen in the US?

I've visited a few sites: Ebay, usedottawa.com, kijiji.com, craiglist...in attempts to see if anyone was selling Senators tickets for the final round at a reasonable price. I found one ad who offered four seats in section 116, row E, seats 9-12, for $250 a pop. It looked to good to be true as it'll be over $400 when they go on sale to the public; it was probably a scam. But, usually a scammer won't be so specific with the seat location, and maybe he was a season ticket holder who got the discount associated with being one and couldn't go to the game. So I thought it wouldn't hurt to email the guy and see what he proposed. And guess what, Warren Miller responded! So whaddya think? C'mon, I can trust Warren Miller! ;)

---

From: olsbp@rogers.com
To: sale-335490710@craigslist.org
Subject: Ottawa Senators Home Game 1 Tickets for Stanley Cup Final - $2
Date: Mon, 21 May 2007 21:11:30 -0400

Hello,

If you still have the tickets I'd like to buy them. I can pay you cash in person. Let me know

Thanks,

Hello

The tickets are still available.
I need to sell them asap because I am not in the US and I will not be going to the game.
I am now in Manchester, United Kingdom.
I will pay for an overnight delivery so if we both move fast you can receive the tickets in less than 1 day.
The tickets were bought by my company as a bonus on a deal for a customer from the US. Unfortunatelly the deal did not go through and now we are stuck with the tickets. I would hate to see the tickets go to waste. We can have the deal asap.
Obviously we need a way to complete this deal that will allow us to make sure we receive what we are after.
I have found a way for us to complete the deal safely and fast, and in this way you will receive the tickets in less than 1 day, if you move fast as well.
The solution is provided by a international shipping company called TNT which is similar to Fedex, DHL or UPS, which will handle the payment and delivery of the tickets.
With this procedure I will only receive the payment for the tickets after you will receive them and see that they are genuine.
Please click on the link below to the TNT website to see how we can complete the deal safely and fast directly from the website of the company where the procedure is explained.

http://manchester-freight-tnt.com/index/details.html

Like I said, I will pay for an overnight delivery so you will receive them in time.

Let me know what you think

Warren
warren_miller43@hotmail.com

Used a ketchup packet lately? Pretty boring, isn't it? Not much competition for a video game.

But not anymore!

Heinz has teamed up with the people at Trivial Pursuit to add some fun just before you spread their condiment on your burger. There is a trivia question pretty directly on the ketchup packet complete with réponse for your amusement! And for the very first question I read off this thing, well, let's just say I got the answer right:

It seemed like destiny for an Ottawa Senators fan like SBP.

Definitely no screwjobs this weekend. Steve's bachelor party at Tremblant was seamlessly organized by EFZ. My only big concern was missing game 5. Well, we were going to see the game, but I didn't want to miss one minute of action. We played golf at 10:30am at the best par 3 ever, Manitou, and by the time we returned back to the condo to throw back some Lucky Lights and mini Coca-Colas, the anthems were just finishing up. Awesome...I wouldn't miss a thing.

Before the game, back at the golf course, there was a 10 foot putt I needed to sink to get par (BTW, we were playing best ball, so it wasn't all SBP). I hadn't sunk one putt all day. But I felt good about it. How good? I said to myself, and didn't tell anyone, that if I managed to sink this shot, the Sens are taking game 5. Nothin' but CUP (pun intended). And the rest is history.

Ok, so it's hokey to think my golf putt had anything to do with Ottawa's victory. But I just wanted to find a way to do my part.

The game was definitely an exciting, tension-filled game that actually almost stopped being fun for me in the third period. The endless parade to the penalty box where the Sabres enjoyed five powerplays in that period alone, including a 90 second 5-on-3, made it look to me that fate just wasn't going to be in Ottawa's favour. But one thing they have shown since the playoffs started is resilience. They were down 1-0, then took the lead. They killed penalty after penalty until Buffalo got the two-man advantage to tie it. But they didn't let up, and with just one goal needed to win, got the momentum back when OT started and took the series. On the ropes, but they came out swinging. The better team won, and the Sabres were sent packing.



All of the struggles the Senators endured in the last 10 postseasons seem worth it. Unless your team goes through the agony of defeat, you can't really fully appreciate the hard work it takes for your team to take it over the top and finally achieve victory. The Sens still have four wins to go, and regardless if it's Anaheim or Detroit, it's going to be a tough series, but already they have given Sens fans a memory that will stay with them as long as they remain hockey fans. It is unfortunate I couldn't witness the spectacle in downtown Ottawa as fans poured out on the streets to celebrate after the game, but reading about it just made me anticipate what the party will be like if the Senators can win it all and bring the Stanley Cup back to Ottawa for the first time since 1927.

I guess there is just one small screwjob...the price of tickets for the next round. Standing room is $130. 200 level seats are $330. Primo 100 level seats are $420: Yikes....and that doesn't include taxes and Melnyk surcharges. The Sens website says they anticipate only 1,000 tickets for each round will be available. I have to go to one game. Just have to. This opportunity may never happen again!

I'll end by saying Daniel Alfredsson certainly looked like a man in shock after scoring the OT winner. It was special that he was the one who scored the goal that brings Ottawa to the Stanley Cup final and it seems like a story just writing itself. The next piece of history to be made is the first European captain to hoist the Stanley Cup for his team after winning the fourth game.

It could potentially be Nicklas Lidstrom if the Red Wings can beat Anaheim.

But my money is on Daniel Alfredsson.

Off for the long weekend to Tremblant tomorrow so I'll be taking a few days off from the blog. Hopefully, I'll be talking about not just a good time away, but also how Ottawa won game 5 to move on to the Stanley Cup finals. Just put it away boys...see look, Alfie has the idea!

I had an excellent plan for today's blog. Write about how Ottawa earned it's first playoff sweep and berth into the Cup Finals. Have a nice pic of the Prince of Wales Trophy and the fans and players celebrating. But it didn't happen. Maybe that contributed to the loss, for a lot of people were already making plans to turn Elgin St into the next Red Mile, how they were going to get tickets to the next round, sort of counting the chickens before they hatch. The two key components of the Sens' success to date, The Pizza line & Ray Emery, gave us probably their worst effort of the post-season and thus a Sabres win. It was nice to see Schaefer and Comrie chip in with some points tonight for a change as they played a decent game, but it wasn't enough. So we'll have game 5 in Buffalo, where Ottawa will hopefully end this series once and for all.

I got this email forwarded of phone calls from Sabres fans after losing game 3. Some funny stuff. Almost similar to Sens fans last spring:

Whiny Sabres fans

I was out at the Highlander Pub tonight with some new people I met and they started talking about a friend of theirs who was 21 years old and got engaged. She got an engagement ring with a .15 carat diamond. All of them were making jokes about how small the diamond was (I asked what the proper size diamond should be since I have no clue about these things. and apparently at least a 1/2 carat ring is the way to go) and that they're already throwing their life away being married so young. The conversation ended and we went on to something else.

I thought to myself a little more about the situation of that couple. Personally, I couldn't picture myself getting hitched at that age. But really, there is no sure formula for these things. I bet that ring the guy bought was probably the most he could afford...how much money did you have at 21? Almost everything is working against them, but I have to admire that they're going to try to make it work anyway. Maybe it'll work, maybe not, but it really isn't fair for me to judge them when facts state no matter what age we are, marriages fail at a rate of about 50%.

It's almost like society dissuades you from keeping your relationships intact if you happen to meet someone at a relatively younger age. Somehow you don't "discover" who are you are and that you'll feel you've missed out on life because you haven't dated tons of people. Maybe you think this way and that's cool, you could be right. In my opinion, if you manage to find happiness at 21, maybe instead you're lucky. Perhaps you've saved yourself a lot of time and agony by being fortunate enough to get it right early.

I wish that unknown couple good luck.

- Actually conversation I heard on the way to the grocery store: "My Colecovision is totally busted. And I need to get a Sega Genesis".

- I feel bad for all the businesses on Bank St than run from Laurier to Wellington. Last year, they had construction that lasted all summer that prevented vehicles from going through and they tore up the sidewalks that made it very unattractive for pedestrians to shop. This year, they've done the exact same thing (all revolving around the light rail project being a go/getting cancelled). Apparently they're losing about 30% of their expected revenues.

- Sens fever may be at Scotiabank Place, but you can't see much of it elsewhere. Hardly a jersey or t-shirt is being worn around the city during these playoffs. I hope this changes if Ottawa makes it to the next round.

- My mother referred to my talk as being "slutty" when I mentioned a single girl "being on the market."

- Many of you know Ottawa is one of the Canadian cities hosting the Men's U-20 FIFA World Cup this summer. A lot of referees are bringing brought from all over the world to officiate the games. I have a friend who's a certified FIFA official, referees MLS games throughout Canada and the USA, and whose home base is Ottawa. Is FIFA going to use this person to referee some games at Frank Clair Stadium? No...because she's female.

- The LED DLP HDTV has arrived in 56" and 61" formats in Canada, but the 50" model I'm looking for to fit inside my condo has still not arrived.

- Finally sent an email to Appletree to book an appointment for my physical.

Latest purchase:




I saved $175 by not going to tonight's game so it's all good!

Where are all the Detroit Red Wings fans?

As I just finished watching the Ducks and Wings finish two periods of hockey in tonight's game 2 of the Western Conference Final, I can't help but notice the tons of empty seats throughout Joe Louis arena. What happened? Outside of Canada, I always thought of Detroit as a hockey mecca.

Are the fans just taking their past success for granted? They've won three Stanley Cups within a decade. The Chicago Blackhawks haven't won a Cup in about 50 years. You'd think knowledgeable hockey fans in Detroit would appreciate how hard it is to win it all...even just making the final four out of 30 teams is an accomplishment. They've come out short since their last championship in 2002, but you can't win every year.

Is it the ticket prices? Hockey tickets are expensive, but not much different than any other city. They've sold out in Ottawa, with a population base about 1/5th that of Detroit. I've read the Anaheim Ducks had 28 sellouts in a row. Anaheim! Where hockey went to die, or so I thought.

Is the "new" NHL that's turning off fans? I'm not sure about that. In 2002, clutching and grabbing hockey was at it's peak, but the fans turned up anyway because at least they were still winning. Attendance is still relatively strong in the traditional markets (exceptions to losing teams like Boston and Chicago). And even if you don't like the current format of the NHL, you'd think Red Wings fans could then honour it's history by showing up for Steve Yzerman retirement night. Embarrassingly, that game wasn't a sellout. The man most responsible for bringing championships to the city of Detroit who embraced the city so much he traded his Canadian citizenship for American, can't even get fans to pay to see him gets his well-deserved recognition in Detroit hockey history.

The fans are still there, I've been told. What if there's a Senators-Red Wings tilt for the Stanley Cup, will they pay to see them in the finals? "They'll be at Scotiabank Place. There will be thousands of (Red Wings) fans," boasted my good friend Rob. I hope so buddy, because they ain't showing up in Michigan.

John convinced me to go to the gym.

After not lifting a weight in about 2 years or so, I signed up for a membership at the Y (not a bad deal, $35 a month). There's a reason why I hadn't bothered for so long.

Perhaps the pain will subside after a few sessions. But less than 24 hours later, it still hurts. Just moving the steering wheel to drive away took effort. Why do we subject ourselves to such misery? Why do we inflict such punishment on ourselves?

Some people enjoy it, so for them it's easy. I don't know...the word "enjoy" doesn't come to mind. The word "weak" came to my mind a lot, though, while I was lifting these weights. So weak. Useless.

Bleah. We'll say how I am a few months from now.

Every night these playoffs that the Sens are in action, everyone talks about the great performance by their captain Daniel Alfredsson.

Alfredsson has been the whipping boy for every past playoff failure the Senators endured. The last playoff game in 2006 saw Buffalo Sabre Jason Pominville walk around Alfredsson while shorthanded and scoring the winning goal that sent Ottawa packing. It was Alfredsson's fault. Emery didn's make the save...it was Alfredsson's fault. Redden coasted to the crease and didn't try to stop him...it was Alfredsson's fault. The rest of the forwards didn't backcheck and left Alfredsson hanging out to try...it was Alfredsson's fault.

Fickle fans have demanded he be traded, and if we listened Jason Spezza and Ray Emery would be out of town as well. Alfredsson always accepted the criticism, would answer for the team's mistakes like they were entirely his own, but always stated he wanted to win a Stanley Cup with the Ottawa Senators. He never complained about the pressure or gloat like Mike Ribiero that he enjoys playing in a city that doesn't know who he is. He wants to stay in a city that cares about hockey, and showed his commitment with a 5-year contract that pays him less money than he would gave gotten if he signed with someone else.

Finally, he's getting recognition....positive recognition, that has him an early favourite to win the Conn Smythe trophy as playoff MVP. Many say he's been holding back and that he's just finally come around, but I think Alfredsson has always tried his hardest every time he plays. I think the team around him has realized the type of effort you need to win during the toughest time of the year, and are following Alfredsson's example instead of leaning on him to do it all. The results are marks in the win column.

If Ottawa moves to the next round, and if they can take it all, out of all the players on the Senators roster, I'd be happiest for Daniel Alfredsson. Ottawa has taken him for granted for so long, he deserves all the kudos for victory if they achieve it.

This is the money matchup most hockey fans have been hoping for this post-season. Two teams with high-powered offence, posting #1 and #2 in the regular season for goals scored, and a bitter rivalry renewed this past February with brawls and other shenanigans.

I'll give Buffalo the edge in depth. They are capable of spreading out their scoring thus far in the playoffs while Ottawa has leaned on the Pizza line for the majority of their scoring. It's not to say I don't think Ottawa's 2nd and 3rd lines can't do better, but guys like Fisher, Comrie, Schaefer and Vermette need to put more pucks in the net if Ottawa is going to win.

I think Ottawa has played better defensively, not just by the 6 labelled as defensemen but also the forwards who have played smart & responsibly these playoffs. Even Spezza has found himself on the ice with just a few minutes left to play to preserve a lead and has even blocked a few shots. Buffalo hasn't looked as good in this area, playing a run and gun game against the Rangers that, while they came out ahead, won't be as successful if they try that style against the Senators.

A lot of people give Miller the edge over Emery in net, but I think it's more or less a wash. The numbers are pretty even, and last year's post-season was more of a learning experience for Emery and has learned from it. His team now has their complete backing and confidence in him, as last year many were just waiting for Hasek to return. Miller does have a little more experience, but it's not terribly substantial.

I sound like a homer, and maybe I am, but Ottawa has just looked so good this Spring. I think if they can bring their A game and at least split the first two games in Buffalo, they'll be ok. I pick the Sens.

Senators in 6.

Oddly enough, I was more uneasy anticipating how my Sens would fare against the Penguins than I do now. Their play has given so much confidence to their fans, this is probably the first time in awhile where excitement more than nerves has taken over. Their continued strong play aganst the Devils proved it wasn't a fluke.

Just play your hardest boys, and I won't ask for anything more.

I've always advocated never trying to bluff a beginner. Truth of the matter is that beginners are too curious and don't know any better than to throw away their middle pairs or Ace high hands and will call you down to the river.

But there is one exception.

Beginners tend to play any two cards, so you can discount the strength of their holdings a lot. If you are in position (last to act), you can usually get away with a bluff when there is an Ace on the flop.

Let's say there's one caller, a beginner, and it's folded to you on the button. You look down at some suited connectors, so you limp in to see the flop for cheap. The small blind folds, and the big blind checks. The flop comes:

Ace-8-3 rainbow.

If it's checked to you, go ahead and bet out, even if you didn't pair your cards. If there is one card beginners fear, it is the Ace. I have found betting out when an Ace is on board is very profitable if it is checked to you. Most players will throw away their middle pairs if they see an Ace followed by a bet about 1/2 the size of the pot.

This example also shows the power of position. If you are first to act, I would NOT advocate betting first because the majority of the time, it is likely someone came in with an Ace. You have no information to act upon, so it's better to check. But if you are acting last, the majority of the time the players ahead of you will make a bet if they paired their Ace.

This is perhaps the only time I've seen beginners fold to a bluff. They never seem to give credit to anyone if a King or Queen is on board, but if an Ace appears and they don't have one, their cards quickly hit the muck.

Of course, this won't work all the time. Someone could be slowplaying and setting up a trap, and this is where you might exercise caution and opt to check instead of trying a bet. But most of the time you should take advantage of your position, and take down the pot when it's checked to you.

I was considering posting my predictions on the Sens-Sabres tonight since they start their series first...but that's not the way I started off my blog, and I don't want to jinx anything. So you're getting Ducks-Red Wings today.

My financial interests in hockey pools would have Detroit advancing to the finals to line my pocket. Datsyuk, who in past years has been a playoff nobody, finally is playing to his potential in the post-season, ditto Henrik Zetterberg. The Red Wings have an amazing ability to limit opponents' shots and play a good team concept. They may not have as much firepower as the Sabres or Senators, but they're still a good puck possession team and have outshot their previous playoff rivals by wide margins. Having said all that, I don't think they can get by Anaheim. The saying goes offense sells tickets, while defence wins championships, and I think the Ducks are the pick of the West when it comes down to D. The trio of Pronger, Niedermayer and Beauchemin make it extremely difficult for their opposition to find the back of the net, and add to the fact they can put up points, too. You also can't forget Conn Smythe Winner J.S. Giguere in net, and after missing the first few post-season games has been dominate in net and has looked good.

This series will likely not be that flashy, and it actually might be unwatchable if I get the stifling defensive game I'm expecting. It won't be easy, but I'll go with the Ducks.

Ducks in 6.

When Kylie and I went to pre-school, we were pretty much well-behaved kids who did what we were told. We got into the odd cases of mischief like any other child, but generally speaking we were good kids.

One day, our teacher had us outside and the entire class was sitting down on the grass, perhaps listening to a story or something else. For some reason, Kylie decided to walk away from the group and wondered off. The play structure was nearby and she went up to climb this really big slide. No one had noticed she had left.

When she got to the top, Kylie fell off it. It wasn't a tumbling down the slide either; she fell from the top of the structure straight to the dirt ground below and was knocked out.

I actually have a memory of this event though I was only 4 years old, oddly enough my vision of this is "from the top", sort of like I was floating in the air witnessing everything transpire. Sometimes I wonder if I actually accompanied Kylie to the slide and that I may have pushed her off myself, although no one has told me that. I also remember my sister in the hospital just waking up while sitting up on a gurney and crying.

Not sure who was actually tending to Kylie while she was taken to the hospital, but she kept on telling Kylie to "Wake up!" and didn't want her to pass out. It was a big scare, but as we know, Kylie was ok.

I thought more about this story after Johnny told me about my Godson Darren getting into an accident over the weekend while playing on the swings. Long story short, a big tree branch fell and bounced off the ground and struck Darren right in the face, knocking him from the swing. Holly told me she hadn't screamed so loud in forever. Luckily, he was ok. He has a nasty shiner and a concussion, but his vision will come back to normal and he'll be fine. He actually went back to school on Monday, tough little trooper. His brother Kevin made a cute get well card: It said hope you get better, do you feel good or bad and it then had a checklist to mark how he was feeling.

One childhood story just reminded me of another.

First, I tried linking this video directly from the youtube site...twice...both times said "it will appear on your blog shortly" but that was over 4 hours ago. So we'll just go with the cut and paste version. I saw this commercial for the first time over the weekend and when it gets to the payoff, I howled in laughter pretty hard...not as hard since the Amp'd commercial where the guy riding the bus asks the girl near him to "shake your junk".

You might think it's lame, and Johnny actually thought it could be racist, but for me...biting social satire!

Bud Light Commercial

I decided to join (well, re-join I suppose, since I had one back in 1999) the 21st century and picked up a new cell phone yesterday. Most of the time that I communicate with others is by email these days, so I don't use the phone all that much. The plan was to cancel my land line and then move my # to a cellular. PC mobile has a pre-paid system that costs a flat 20 cents per minute, whereas a lot of other services charge 30 or 40 cents. I'd be saving a little if you figure how little I use my land line phone. So it all sounded good to me, sign me up.

Unfortunately, activating the service took a little more effort than I thought. The third number I called had me on hold for 25 minutes. And when they picked up the line, they hung up on me. Not sure whether or not it was intentional, but I figured if that's the service I'm getting when they're accepting new customers, how good can it be when you have a problem and they already got your money?

I returned the cell the next day. Not sure if I'll try getting a new one later, but for now, it's on the shelf. Boo cell phones!

Other thoughts - True conversation Johnny & I had today:

John: What are you watching?
Ben: I just discovered Predator 2 is on Spike.
John: Predator 2?
Ben: Yeah, it's a steaming pile of dog sh*t but at the time I thought it was the best movie ever made
John: What was that new movie they made...Predator vs what?
Ben: Aliens.
John: Right, Aliens. Who won?
Ben: Don't know, never saw it. But certainly, not the audience.

Hey-oooooooooooo!

When the Senators exorcise a demon that has haunted them since 2003, you can't help but find it too easy to type up words for your blog.

The Sens looked awful in period 1 tonight, but like against Pittsburgh in game 4, the Sens were badly outplayed but regrouped the next period still having a chance to win. They were too passive after the opening faceoff, also taking a couple of weak penalties to compound their problems. Emery made a handful of good saves to keep the game within reach in period 1, and Antoine Vermette FINALLY scored in the 2nd period after having so many chances elude him during the series to tie it up and gave the team life. The pizza line took over and brought the rest of the offence with 6 points combined for the night. Everything was clicking. Every bounce was going their way.

Of course, the Devils last goal with 40 seconds remaining put the fans on edge until the end of the game, but no worries. The Devils are out, and the Senators are suddenly looking to everyone that this could be their year.

Before I get carried away, you have to step back and realize the Sens have only won 1/2 the games they need to win it all. But out of 30 teams they are the last four remaining. I have to admit, when I thought of how far Ottawa can go before the playoffs started, I thought the Conference Final would be about as far as they could make it. Seeing the way they've played to make it this far, I truly believe they have a chance to prove all the doubters wrong, including myself before this all started, and bring that Cup back to Canada.

I think the Rangers are the weaker team than Buffalo and likely the Sabres will advance. But, I hope at least it'll go seven games and they'll pound the tar out of each other before they face a well-rested Senators squad.

Keep it going boys. You're making Ottawa proud.

I don't have a place to store my Jeep hard top!

As the weather warms up and the roads are dry and non-slippery, this is the perfect time to drive down Elgin St. and feel the wind blowing through your hair as you scope out the ladies. Unfortunately for me, this won't happen this summer. Rob was kind enough to let me store the 'top in his garage last year, but he's selling his place and is now unable to do so.

Most new homes don't have nice big garages. And if you're lucky to have a garage, you can fit your kids crap in there and not have room for anything else. Or you car was broken into while left outside so now you're using your garage as a, well, carhold.

Another thing that sucks is that I won't be able to descend mountains in it in the open air like I usually do.

Oh well, could be worse. I could have no Jeep, period.

This Parliament enquiry into the decision of Hockey Canada to annoint Shane Doan as Captain of Team Canada at the World Championships in Sweden sort of reminds of the whole Clinton-Lewinski deal: An investigation into something that was nothing more than a precious waste of resources and a means for politicians to get their name in the spotlight. Instead of sex, we add a touch of Canadiana and make it about hockey. Kind of amusing, actually.

Back in late 2005, Shane Doan allegedly made a slur against a French referee during a game in Montreal against the Canadiens. I didn't know what the slur actually was until reading the Sun today (I just read it for the sports section, btw). Apparently Doan's teammate Curtis Joseph was upset at a referee's call. Doan's response was something along the lines of "What do you expect, they're French-Canadian". He was inferring they were biased because they're rooting for the home team (all four officials were from Quebec). He would have substituted "French-Canadian" with "Albertans" if they were playing in Edmonton. Point is, this is hardly an attack against the entire Quebec population. It was a comment said in the heat of the moment to calm down his teammate.

The NHL investigated the incident, and Doan was cleared. That should be it. But even though he was found innocent of any wrong-doing, many politicians still thought of him as guilty.

I'm no fan of Shane Doan, but he says he did nothing wrong, the NHL concluded he did nothing wrong so no one has any right to go back on this matter and drag his name through the mud. There are serious issues going on in our country: how about the war in Afghanistan? Maybe the MPs should be spending time discussing issues like that, not about the appointment of a sports captain for a tournament hardly anyone's watching right now.

I believe most people side with Shane Doan and the water will pass under the bridge. But in the interim, our members of Parliament should be embarrassed for even bringing this up in the first place.

The Senators are exceeding my expectations and I have no complaints.

Being up 3-1 against the New Jersey Devils is a fantastic accomplishment. A lot of people picked a back and forth series with many seeing it go to a game 7, but with the dominating play of Ottawa, this series might have been a sweep had they gotten a little more lucky in OT in game 2.

Ottawa probably played their best game of the series in game 3, but tonight, after coming out hard in the first period, there were a little back on their heels and I was getting concerned at all of the bad penalties they were taking, which led to the game being tied 1-1 with a powerplay goal by Brian Gionta. Getting a somewhat fluky 2nd goal by Dany Heatley got their momentum back, and they were the better team for more or less the rest of the game.

Some tense moments towards the end of the third period, but you had to love Anton Volchenkov's last minute blocked shot on Patrik Elias that ended up being the Devils last good chance to score. I've seen Ottawa make so many unselfish great plays like that since the start of the post-season; it's the sort of thing that will help them go forward.

It was weird for me during the game that for some reason, I felt relaxed tonight. The usual stress I experience didn't really hit me as much as it usually does. Maybe it had to do with Ottawa getting a quick early goal that helped ease the tension, who knows, but with just one victory to get to the final four...wow, the excitement is truly overwhelming. It ain't over till it's over, though, and the Devils won't go away quietly. Game five should be a good one.

Side note: Loved the spontaneous chants of "Alfie, Alfie!" heard throughout the crowd tonight. The team captain is truly leading by example, and laying to rest any thoughts he should be playing somewhere else that has followed him for most of his career.

I copied & pasted from the NHL website and it kept the links...no big deal. Here they are and here's who I think will win:

CALDER MEMORIAL TROPHY (outstanding rookie): Evgeni Malkin, Penguins; Jordan Staal, Penguins; Paul Stastny, Avalanche.

Malkin will win. Paul Stastny made some headway towards the end of the season but Malkin should prevail

FRANK J. SELKE TROPHY (outstanding defensive forward): Rod Brind'Amour, Hurricanes; Samuel Pahlsson, Ducks; Jay Pandolfo, Devils.

Brind'Amour was probably the only Hurricane to keep up his Stanley Cup championship form from last year. He had a good season and I'll pick him.

HART MEMORIAL TROPHY (most valuable player to his team): Martin Brodeur, Devils; Sidney Crosby, Penguins; Roberto Luongo, Canucks.

At only 19 years old, Sidney Crosby is the player that will carry the league for the next generation and this year he demonstrated he's worth the hype. I don't think the league will want to hand out the award to a goalie.

JACK ADAMS AWARD (outstanding coach): Lindy Ruff, Sabres; Michel Therrien, Penguins; Alain Vigneault, Canucks.

Michel Therrien molded his rookie squad from a dismal non-playoff position last season and put them on the map with 105 points to close out the year. This team will win championships in the near future.

JAMES NORRIS MEMORIAL TROPHY (outstanding defenseman): Nicklas Lidstrom, Red Wings; Scott Niedermayer, Ducks; Chris Pronger, Ducks.

Nicklas Lidstrom is the workhorse of the Red Wings. He leads defencemen in almost every category; he should win despite the great year of the Ducks' best blueline tandem.

LADY BYNG MEMORIAL TROPHY (sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct): Pavel Datsyuk, Red Wings; Joe Sakic, Avalanche; Martin St. Louis, Lightning.

Joe Sakic should get it. Despite avoiding the penalty box, he still plays hard and leads by example.

LESTER B. PEARSON AWARD (most outstanding player as voted by fellow members of the NHLPA): Sidney Crosby, Penguins; Vincent Lecavalier, Lightning; Roberto Luongo, Canucks.

I think the players will go with Sidney Crosby

VEZINA TROPHY *** (outstanding goaltender): Martin Brodeur, Devils; Miikka Kiprusoff, Flames; Henrik Lundqvist, Rangers; Roberto Luongo, Canucks.

Kiprusoff and Lundqvist are the ones that tied for third. Luongo and Brodeur is a close call...I'll pick Luongo since the voters might consider the Canucks weren't much of a team until Luongo brought them to the post-season after they missed it last year.