Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Beginner's Luck
Have you ever sat down to play cards, confident in your abilities, putting your chips in with the best of it, but no matter how you play or how you're supposed to be the favourite, you lose every hand you're involved in to someone who has absolutely no idea what they're doing?You re-raise with pocket Kings, you sucker your opponent to play their trash hand only cause they're suited, you even force them to put their entire tournament life with an approximate 79% chance of busting them out, but they suck out their needed cards and take you out instead?
It's painful, and if you play regularly it will happen to you. But you know what the best remedy is when it happens to you?
Invite them to your next game.
Poker pro and multi World Series of Poker bracelet winner Phil Ivey sums it up nicely, "My little sister can beat me". The reason for that is that while the pros' advantage lies with exploiting weaknesses and knowing odds, they have absolutely no control over a 2-outer your opponent hit on the river.
But in the long run, you WILL come out ahead. You can't second guess the decisions you made where it was a simple case of a miracle card knocking you out of contention. It's a paradox: You made the correct decision, but you ended up losing. It happens all the time.
But most of the time, it won't happen. Most the time, when you put your Kings up against 7-10 suited, you will win.
79% of the time.
# posted by SBP : 11:16 PM
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This probably won’t help BP, but isn’t poker based on gambling? A game of chance? Unfortunately that line every poker player likes from rounders “…are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas?” doesn’t hold up anymore as you have pros, armatures and people from all walks of life that are able to play cards and make it to the final tables.
Your opponent took a gamble with suited cards? Not that bad of a gamble if you ask me. Bad beat is a bad beat but there is more to poker then stats. Just remember that when you sit down to play against varying skill levels and styles of play in Vegas.
Your opponent took a gamble with suited cards? Not that bad of a gamble if you ask me. Bad beat is a bad beat but there is more to poker then stats. Just remember that when you sit down to play against varying skill levels and styles of play in Vegas.
I'm posting your comment Tracy because even though I pressed the publish button, it didn't show up:
"Isn't it important to learn to play the player in poker, just as much as the odds. If you are playing a beginner, chances are they will call random cards down to the river & catch the nuts.
The beginner has an advantage in yes - they get lucky _ but they are also 'unpredictable & loose' -a trait shared by some great players.
"Overconfidence - before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure you could survive the odds beating you."
When you play a beginner, or anyone for that matter, you are trying to get them to make mistakes. If you put a decision to them to call off all of their chips when they are an 81% underdog and they elect to make the call, you've done your job and they made a mistake. But after that, luck can be on their side and you have no control over that. On the whole, if you impose these decisions on these players and they bet against the odds, in the long run you will come out ahead.
"Isn't it important to learn to play the player in poker, just as much as the odds. If you are playing a beginner, chances are they will call random cards down to the river & catch the nuts.
The beginner has an advantage in yes - they get lucky _ but they are also 'unpredictable & loose' -a trait shared by some great players.
"Overconfidence - before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure you could survive the odds beating you."
When you play a beginner, or anyone for that matter, you are trying to get them to make mistakes. If you put a decision to them to call off all of their chips when they are an 81% underdog and they elect to make the call, you've done your job and they made a mistake. But after that, luck can be on their side and you have no control over that. On the whole, if you impose these decisions on these players and they bet against the odds, in the long run you will come out ahead.
"...in the long run you will come out ahead."
agree but unfortunately in no-limit the long run could mean one hand.
agree but unfortunately in no-limit the long run could mean one hand.
Here's an idea...Don't play with newbies. And if you do play with newbies, put the rule book away and have some fun. I can't imagine my $5 is worth passing on the first 25 hands.
# posted by 
: 11:43 AM, May 30, 2007
: 11:43 AM, May 30, 2007
None of what you described has ever happened to me SBP.
Everytime I play with you, you execute your strategy perfectly and fold for the first hour.
Everytime I play with you, you execute your strategy perfectly and fold for the first hour.
# posted by : 11:53 AM, May 30, 2007
: 11:53 AM, May 30, 2007
You *can* win when playing with loose players. Heck, you *want* them there. But yeah, you gotta fold your bad hands, play smallball with your medium strength ones, and extract the most when you hit your monster hands.
Casual players don't see folding as part of the game, but I assure you it is. Just like casual observers of a baseball game would see a 0-0 score in the 7th inning and say it must be a boring game.
But to baseball lovers, they'd see the duel on the mound, the adjustments made on defence, the strategy of bunting a guy over or taking more pitches to try to get on base...
Every single poker player has a different style, until you figure it out, why would you put chips in the middle? I don't mind folding for the first hour, but that's because I've been getting bad cards and will use that time to watch what everyone else is doing, so when I *do* go into a hand, it's with as much information as possible on how my opponnent plays. After that, I'm happy to leave *some* of it to chance. :)
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Casual players don't see folding as part of the game, but I assure you it is. Just like casual observers of a baseball game would see a 0-0 score in the 7th inning and say it must be a boring game.
But to baseball lovers, they'd see the duel on the mound, the adjustments made on defence, the strategy of bunting a guy over or taking more pitches to try to get on base...
Every single poker player has a different style, until you figure it out, why would you put chips in the middle? I don't mind folding for the first hour, but that's because I've been getting bad cards and will use that time to watch what everyone else is doing, so when I *do* go into a hand, it's with as much information as possible on how my opponnent plays. After that, I'm happy to leave *some* of it to chance. :)
# posted by : 8:38 AM, May 31, 2007
: 8:38 AM, May 31, 2007Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
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