Monday, March 21, 2011

A Poker Problem



Imagine it's early in the tournament with the blinds still small and your chip stack still big. The first player to act limps in, or places the minimum bet in order to see the flop. The next two players fold but the next four also limp in. You're on the button with a suited Ace-Three. It's your turn to act, So what do you do?

At the beginning of tournaments, you'll find a lot of players are interested in "limping" into pots. Not raising...but not folding either. Just placing the minimum bet with their two cards to see a flop and hope for a big payoff. A lot of times, you'll see others follow suit if they have speculative cards they wouldn't mind playing for cheap, like a suited 9-10 for instance. You can try your luck and hit a straight or flush (or at least their draws) and if there are a lot of people in the hand, you might get paid off in a big way if they also "hit" their hand in some way. So with that in mind, how should you play it? Here are the options:

1) Fold - Pros: An ace with a small kicker a lot of times will get you into trouble when you're up against someone with a bigger ace. Saving your chips now, especially if you're up against more experienced players, may not be a bad play. Plus if there's a chance the blinds could raise to drive everybody out, you may be stuck with a difficult decision, not knowing if it's a legitimate "I got something" raise or if they're just trying to steal from everyone who has shown weakness.

Cons: You have an Ace, and while the 3 kicker is weak, you have a chance to make a possible nut flush, and with your two cards close together, you might get real lucky and flop a straight. In most cases, especially when the blinds are small in comparison to everyone's stack, you won't see too many fancy plays and everyone will be content seeing a flop for cheap. Poker is gambling and the cost of a big blind could very well be worth it on this hand.

2) Raise - Pros: Everyone has shown weakness with just a call and it could be seen as a legitimate big hand (perhaps giving you credit for an Ace-King type of hand) with your raise. If you haven't been entering many pots, the odds increase your opponents will fold. Choosing this route means you aren't interested in getting any callers: You just want to take the pot here and now without a fight. If someone does call, you still have a semi-decent hand to play. If you're re-raised, you'll have to fold.

Cons: The blinds are small so the risk-reward ratio isn't likely in your favour. There's still a chance the two remaining blinds could re-raise you if they have anything half-decent. If you make it a habit of raising with marginal hands like this early in the tournament, when the blinds do get high, anyone with reasonable skill will throw it back in your face and you'll find yourself facing tough decision after tough decision when you constantly get raised over and over again. It's probably worth trying only if the size of the pot is worth stealing, and of course if you think you can get away with it.

3) Call - Pros: This is the sort of hand you want to see a flop with when multiple players are already involved. A chance to make a straight, nut flush and even making a simple pair of Aces may even be good enough to win. The cost is cheap as you still have a decent stack to play with, and with only the blinds left to act, there's a good chance everyone will be content to see the flop without anyone sticking in a raise. And because you're on the button, you'll be in favourable position as you're last to act once the flop hits the board.

Cons: A weak Ace holding can always be dangerous as you have no kicker if you're up against someone who's also holding an Ace. It's a hand that can lead to a lot of trouble if you don't hit your flush or straight hands. Also risky is the cost of "chasing"...you're one card away from the best hand, you pay to see the turn and river cards, and you miss all of your draws. Bleeding chips early can also lead to an early exit.

There's a lot to consider, even though for some it may be automatic what to do. For what it's worth, on the whole I think it's worth at least a call, folding is probably too tight an option and I wouldn't try taking the pot pre-flop with a raise until later on in the tournament when the blinds are worth stealing.

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