Tuesday, January 12, 2010

The Reality of the 2009-10 Ottawa Senators

The run and gun era of the Senators, last seen in the 2007 Stanley Cup finals, has come to a close. Now in 7th place, after losing four games in a row, many are thinking the best course for the team to take is a knee, that is, take a knee and let the Rangers, Flyers and Canadiens fight for that 7th and 8th playoff position so the Senators can land a better spot in the 2010 draft and start to rebuild.

I'm not one of those people. In fact, I think that sort of thinking is completely asinine.

For starters, no professional athlete in their right mind will play half-assed for the sake of their franchise. They know their shelf life is limited, contracts come to an end, and if their current team doesn't want to retain their services, they need to play their best to attract suitors from other teams to land a new job. Playing like a sieve won't exactly help them.

And with a salary cap system, if you feel that the best way to rebuild is to move you're #1 center making $7 million a year for the next 10 years, well, you're going to need to find another team that one, feels the player in question can perform to expectations (after all, if you're trying to unload him you feel he isn't) and two, have the cap space on their payroll to accept such an expensive player. It is becoming harder and harder for teams to find a fit that way, and that is why if you gamble on the wrong players (just look at the Islanders and the Yashin contract) your team will pay for it.

So what's my point? The Sens likely don't have enough talent to be a Stanley Cup contender, but don't stink enough to land a first overall pick. In fact, if the Senators can be healthy, I think they can make the 5th-8th position in the playoffs, seeing as wide open as the Eastern conference is. But if they're hurt like they are now, the remains on the roster can't carry the load.

I think Ottawa's collection of forwards can compete with any other of their like in the NHL. Where they falter is on defense and goaltending. Leclaire was playing well until he got struck in the face with the a puck and missed about 14 games. He hasn't been very good since. And Elliott has shown why he's a backup.

Ottawa's defensive tandem of Phillips and Volechenkov is a good shutdown tandem. But when they're your top two guys, there's a problem. They aren't #1 d-men. Filip Kuba, by salary, should be the #1 guy, but he hasn't been very good. The revolving door of healthy scratches each game night: Picard, Campoli, Karlsson and the demoted Brian Lee, demonstrates how unstable the defense are.

So when you take away from the one consistent thing going well for the Senators, the forwards, when Alfredsson, Spezza and Michalek fall to injuries, they will lose more than they'll win. The players won't use injuries as an excuse, but I will. When Ottawa loses their top point producer, their top goal scorer, and their #1 centre, they don't have the depth to stay competitive.

It might be asking for a lot, but if we can upgrade the back end, and if Leclaire can just be consistent, I think this team can have a chance to win. When you reach the post-season, anything can happen. And really, the best time of the year is the playoffs and I want my team to be there, and if they can make it but the direction management chooses to follow involves them finishing low for the sake of a draft pick that may or may not work out, well, I don't like that line of thinking.

But hey, just one man's opinion.

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