Wednesday, January 09, 2008

HD DVD is dead

There will likely never be a format war again. Two companies (primarily) squared off in the next-generation format of home video with Toshiba backing HD-DVD and Sony backing up Blu-Ray technology. It was a ridiculous proposition to begin with, with some movie studios releasing only their movies on one format and not the other. Ridiculous especially for consumers who likely aren't aware of all the facts such as that and may not realize the likelihood of one format dying is too great. Some may think it might be like a video game console war a la Xbox 360 vs Playstation 3 and "there's room in the market for everyone" and both formats would thrive. Naive perhaps, but not crazy.

So Warner Brothers, where I read sells about 18% of the movies out there, announced they are backing only Blu-Ray and abandoning HD-DVD by the Spring. For this reason, others are expected to follow.

The movie studios should have decided on a format before entering this "war" to begin with. There was no clear indication at the start which format would win, and each studio & electronics manufacturer must have realized at one point they will have to go to one or the other, hence pretty much a coin flip on if you guessed right and invested your money properly. The exclusivity deals Toshiba and Sony made studios sign just made the market stall on which format would prevail and I think hurt initial sales (aside from the terribly high price tags).

Anyway, I remember a Best Buy boxing day deal where a $399.99 HD-DVD player was selling for $99.99. Boxing day deals are good, but this good? Toshiba knew perhaps, so started dumping them. Consumers won't know the difference, they just think it's one of many post-Christmas specials. They may not even know that their recently bought HD-DVD player is now a paperweight.

Maybe if Bill Gates wasn't greedy and had an HD-DVD player built in to the Xbox 360 instead of charging an extra $200 for it while Playstation 3 had the Blu-Ray player included in their price, maybe it'd still have a fighting chance.

Comments:
Microsoft (not Gates) was shrewd to NOT include the HD-DVD player in their Xbox360 core hardware. It gives them an "out" just in case the technology didn't get adopted as the industry standard.

Sure, they were one of like ten companies that supported the format, but they weren't about to tie their biggest new product in years to something that might fail.

So now, all you Xbox360 owners can go out and buy your standalone blu-ray players while not feeling gypped for having paid more for a console that includes a format that nobody uses anymore.

The real scary thing would have been if blu-ray was the loser. Sony's feeble PS3 sales would have been hit even worse!
 
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