Monday, February 05, 2007

Moving in With Your Set

While playing hold 'em, nothing gets me as excited as flopping a set: When you hold a small or medium pair, and your hand just improved to a three of a kind after the flop is dealt, all you can think about is how many chips you can extract from your opponents. When your hand improves even further to a full house and you're still getting action, shoving all your chips in the middle and getting paid off on it can make up for a month's worth of bad beats.

I like to flat call with a small/medium pair when it's early in the game and hope to flop the aforementioned monster (about a 7.5 to 1 chance of happening). When the table is shorthanded, it is usually correct to raise, especially when the blinds are high. You can usually win the blinds right out, and if you don't, your opponent's two high cards may miss and you can still take the pot with another bet. If you make your set, you might be able to build a big pot and take down a huge number of chips.

Most players usually check when they hit their set, hoping to induce a bluff from the opposing player and then they can either flat call or re-raise depending on the circumstances. This is standard play, but sometimes, it isn't always correct. Let's suppose you raise with pocket 7s. You get one caller. The flop comes:

Ace-Queen-7

Even if it's a rainbow flop (all different suits), you should make a standard bet right away and hope to get action. The reason is simple: Most players play hands like Ace-King, Ace-Queen or Ace-Jack and it probably hit their hand. And if you're first to act, some players will think you're just trying to steal the pot after a pre-flop raise in hopes of taking the pot down right away (or making a "continuation bet"). When I play a pocket pair, miss my set and an Ace hits the flop, 99% of the time I'm done with the hand. People play their Aces. So in my example, lead at the pot and expect to get action.

If the board is suited, this gives you even more reason to bet out. If the A-Q-7 has two diamonds, there's a chance your opponent might be playing a suited Ace and will play the hand strongly. If they move all-in you're calling...you're still about a 70% favourite to win if they're playing a paired Ace with a flush draw. Make them pay for their suckout.

I find beginners, especially loose ones, bet out so much that when they check it can become a tell. If, for example, you're playing against someone who fires a bullet at every flop, alarm bells should be going off in your head if they check a hand to you. In some cases, a check can be scarier than a bet.

Going back to my original example, say your pockets 7s see a flop of 3-7-9. Now, here's a situation where it makes sense to check. It likely didn't hit your opponent in any way, and they may decide to make a play at the flop. Better yet, maybe they're holding a big pocket pair like Queens or Kings and think they have the best hand. If they check behind you and an Ace or King comes up on the turn, it may have hit their hand and they will give you action.

Slow-playing a set isn't the only way to go. Leading out with a bet can be an unpredictable and profitable way of getting the most out of your monster hand.

Comments:
No blog comments lately, eh?

I was thinking about a particular situation where you might not want to bet out with the set on the flop:

What if you flop the set of 5's, and your opponnent (who like to play suited connectors) sees a flop of 5-6-8 suited? And further, what if that player has 2.5 times the size of the pot at this point.

This will often turn it into a coin-flip with a ton of outs for your opponnent and any bet will make him pot-committed. With two cards to come and plenty of outs, they'll probably call.

What do you think of checking here and giving a free card? You let their outs dry up if it's an unsuited deuce, and you avoid losing that extra bet if another scare card comes that almost certainly fills their straight or flush....
 
Well, that's a good argument to check. Likely, the opponent will also check if they flopped their flush, hoping to induce action on the turn card. They probably wouldn't put you on a set, just two high cards that missed.

I would be more inclined to bet out, mostly because I don't want to see another card of the same suit hit the board; I'd want to protect my set. Even if they did flop the flush, you're drawing to ten outs after the turn card to make your boat so you're not dead.

If the opponent is pot-committed based on their stack size, you should put them all-in anyway. If you have the chips, have them make the tough decisions. Maybe they did make their straight but, with their tournament life on the line, are afraid to call thinking you have the flush. Nothing wrong with gambling a little, especially if your stack can afford it, or if the blinds are high enough that'll you'll be on rail soon, anyway.
 
I'll leave the "full-house beaten by-straight-flush" possibilities (those never happen!) out of the discussion as well. :)
 
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