Monday, November 13, 2006

It doesn't hurt to get lucky

In almost every sports' team run to their eventual championship, along the way they got their breaks. They either created it themselves, or the other team got it for them. Not too many journalists talk about it as they solely look at the end result and nothing else, but you don't have to look any further than last season's Stanley Cup finals to know what I'm talking about.

Carolina had no choice but to go to backup Cam Ward for goaltending after Martin Gerber was battling the flu and lost 15-20 pounds, and not to mention the first two games against Montreal. Ward not only brought them a Stanley Cup, but also took playoff MVP. What if Gerber was healthy...what would have been Carolina's fate?

The Buffalo Sabres were on a roll heading to the Conference final, but game 7 the injuries piled up. Buffalo had only 2 or 3 of their regular defencemen suited up, and they went on to lose the game 7 Conference final.

The Edmonton Oilers had a surprising run to the Cup final that found them tied with Carolina with three wins apiece before losing a tough game 7. But there was a good chance they weren't going past the 2nd round facing the San Jose Sharks. Down two games to zero, game three headed to overtime, and the Sharks managed to hit the post not once, but TWICE during OT. I believe both shots were delivered by Hart Trophy winner Joe Thornton. If somehow one of those pucks found the net, I think it's safe to say Edmonton wouldn't been able to pull off being down three game to none, and a new Western team would have played in the final.

The Oilers, though, were terribly unlucky when Dwayne Roloson went down with an injury in game 1 of the finals and had to go to Jussi Markkanen for goaltending duties. He got lit up 5-0 in game 2, and although he was solid for the rest of the series, that game pretty much sealed the Oilers fate as it was too great a task to overcome the odds of being down two games to none and three games to one.

This isn't to say Carolina didn't deserve to win the Stanley Cup. But it just shows a contrast on how some teams' bad luck can end up being the best thing to happen to them, and how a bounce here or a bounce there can change the fate of the end result. No matter how much skill, determination, sweat & tears your team has, it certainly doesn't hurt if the other team you're playing against keeps on hitting the post.

Comments:
Haaaaaang on here, aren't you talking abouy poker?
 
Look no further than Pittsburgh's to Superbowl XL last season. EVERY game had at least one element of "Boy, *that* could have gone the other way" and ended the season right there. But hey, you can only get lucky so many times before they start calling it destiny!
 
Whoops, that should have read "Pittsburgh's roll to Superbowl XL last season"
 
I should have talked about poker. BTW I think it's 85% luck - 15% skill in my opinion. Poor Tracy...the last three games, every time she correctly moved all-in when she was short stacked, twice I had Aces and another time her pocket 7s went against my pocket 9s. If cards are hitting me in the face, hey, skill had nothing to do with it.
 
Stan,

Please tell us more about the Pittsburgh Steelers journey to Super Bowl XL! It sounds like a fascinating story. Perhaps you could guest-write a whole column for Ben reragrding a truly remarkable season by America's real team.
 
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