Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Play Carefully Against the Big Stacks

Alex and I were discussing a hand an ESPN commentator wrote about that busted him out of the World Series of Poker Main Event. At his table, there was someone he deemed a "maniac", talking trash and never hesitating to show off his bluffs. He was the large stack and the players were getting pushed around like no tomorrow. This commentator thought he would make a stand and show he couldn't be "messed with".

The big stack made a raise and Mr. ESPN decided to call with King-Ten. The flop couldn't have hit him much better: King-Ten-x. The maniac bet into him and ESPN decided to move all-in with his top two pair. Only a set would beat him at this point, however, he discussed how he "knew" he wasn't against one.

The maniac big stack called the all-in with big slick, Ace-King. Turns out he DID have something. He flopped top pair with top kicker but was in dire straits. But since this is poker, he still had a chance (about 15%). Sure enough, the turn and river cards came up Queen-Queen, giving both players two pairs but the maniac coming out on top with his ace kicker. Mr. ESPN was busted out of the tournament.

He played the hand as well as anyone could. He saw the big stack was making loose calls and playing very aggressively. After the flop, he had put his money in with the best of it. But the decision to play the hand in the first place was were the crucial mistake was made.

If you are a short or medium stack, you only mess with the big stacks when you have a premium hand. When loose, aggressive big stacks play pots, you tend to forget your "A" game and play hands you wouldn't normally play. King-Ten is hand I would NEVER call a raise with. Ever. It's trap hand designed to cost you chips. Yes, on the flop he had the best hand, but your decision to play is BEFORE the flop.

Remember, the big stack has more chips than you and can bust YOU out of contention. You cannot knock him or her out (yet). That is why you have to have the goods BEFORE THE FLOP to mess with him. Ideally, the big stack will be to your right so you can make a decision as to whether or not you would play before you even bother putting any chips in the middle to begin with.

So who made the worst decision in the above example: The big stack with chips to spare who called an all-in with top pair & top kicker, or the player who called the pre-flop raise with King-Ten?

Big stacks can afford to take more risks than everyone else. Overtly aggressive types like to play more drawing hands and like to re-raise to steal as many pots as possible. However, in the end, if you have a marginal hand, it's still a marginal hand. You have to be patient if you want to double up through them, otherwise one mistake and it's all over.

Comments:
A friend of mine, let's call him Senor Pantalones, told me about the article before I got a chance to read it, and highlighted the fact that Simmons really harped on the luck thing...

I've had the same thing happen to me online, but I was holding JJ and hit trips on the flop, slowplayed, he checked behind me, got a blank on the turn, I pushed to avoid pricing in the straight or flush draws, and get called with top pair and a gutshot draw. And of course, he hit his draw. And I contend that I got unlucky. But the difference is that I actually had a hand preflop, so I can justify it over him playing the KT.

But the moral of that story is: I was one place out of the money, and if I'd chosen NOT to play ANY hand for the next 5 minutes, I would have at least doubled my money instead of losing it outright.

So, while I played the hand as well as I could have, I didn't extend my strategic thinking to the big picture. That's what Simmons should have done too, and in both cases, it didn't have anything to do with luck.
 
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