Thursday, May 04, 2006

Senators - Sabres: How they match up


Round 2 is set for tomorrow, and both teams are chomping at the bit to get it on. This should be a tremendous series. No defence first Calgary Flames. No slow, lumbering Philadelphia Flyers. Instead, we have two deep teams who pride themselves as being fast, hard-skating clubs. If you picked Sabres and Senators in your hockey pools, you will probably be rewarded with high-scoring affairs.

Ottawa has a 5-1-2 record against the Sabres over the course of the regular season, but it doesn't really tell the whole story. Earlier in the season, the Sens blew them out of the water with scores of 5-0, 10-4 & 6-1, but at the time Buffalo didn't really find their stride. Buffalo did pick up their wins more recently including a 6-2 victory early April, but that was during the time Ottawa was plagued with injuries to Chara, Redden, Phillips and Havlat. It's hard to gauge who is the better team based solely on regular season play.

Up front Ottawa has Heatley, Spezza, Havlat and Alfredsson to carry the offensive load. Buffalo will rely on guys like Daniel Briere, Tim Connolly, Chris Drury and J.P. Dumont. The Sabres are as deep as the Senators but I think Ottawa has the edge with offence. No one can score goals better than Heatley on either team. No one can set up plays as good as Spezza. There's a reason why Ottawa led the league in goal-scoring this year.

Ottawa is better defensively with Chara, Redden and Phillips leading the group. Brian Campbell, Teppo Numminen and Jay Mckee are capable but Ottawa is deeper and can be counted on more so five-on-five. Once again, over the course of the season Ottawa has been superior to nearly every team at full strength. Buffalo has no defensemen with a +/- higher than 14 while Ottawa's top 6 D all have ratings of +17 or greater.

Ray Emery and Ryan Miller are in similar circumstances haveing just played their first playoff series and have about the same level of experience. Both have answered the bell when counted upon. I think Miller at the start might be on nerves as Ottawa should be able to generate more scoring chances than Philadelphia was capable of, but he should be able to handle it fine. It's about even here.

The Sabres will relish the role of underdog, as they are a small skating team "with big hearts" as Vaclav Varada put it. A lot of people didn't even think they would make the playoffs. They will play with a lot of heart and determination, and Ottawa must match it if they are to succeed. In the end, if Ottawa plays their best, and Buffalo plays theirs, the Senators' edge in firepower and better defence should prevail.

Should.

Ottawa in 6.

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