Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Recognize when you get lucky...and unlucky

The last six weeks or so, I've been in a bit of a poker slump. On average, when I get together with my poker buddies, I've won about 1 in 3 games, which is great. The last six weeks I've had a couple of 2nd place finishes but not much else. And perhaps the reason is the players around me are just getting better, but I've also recognized a horrible habit I've been getting myself into.

One of the things I like to do is play some online freeroll Pokerstars tournaments. Although if you win enough pots you might qualify for round 2 which actually pays out some cash even though it's 100% free to enter, these tourneys are usually examples of what NOT to do when playing.

I noticed a lot of people limping in with awful hands like Ace-rag (Ace with a weak kicker), they get raised with someone holding a legitimate hand like pocket Kings, they catch their Ace and win a big pot. They should have never been in the pot to begin with, but they took their chances and won chips. So when I see that happen, what do I start doing? The other night I'm one off from the dealer button, no one raised, I call with Ace-rag, I hit my Ace and bet, get called, and sure enough I get beat with someone holding Ace-Ten. I should have never been in the pot to begin with, but since I saw someone bring pocket Kings crumbling down, I figure I'm due as well. In essence, I'm mimicking other players' bad habits.

The other night, with chip stacks starting at 800, I look down at Queen-Ten. This is a weak hand that looks ok to a beginner, but an experienced player knows this is nothing but a trap hand that can get you into all sorts of trouble. So this is what happens: The blinds are 20-40, I'm down to 600 chips, and like an absolute idiot call 40 with my Queen-Ten. Another person calls, the big blind raises another 60. Now that there's all those chips in the middle, what's another 60? So I call that. The flop completely misses me, so I check, the original raiser bets out and I have to fold. That one hand cost me 16.6% of my chips and I'm shortstacked. And I shouldn't have played it in the first place!

Let's go over those two hands and explain why they are so horrible:

If you play Ace-rag, there's too great a chance you are outkicked. Ace-King, Ace-Queen and Ace-Jack are all starting hands players enter pots with that have you beat. Unless you're really lucky and catch two pair, you have little chance of winning, and if your Ace hits you will likely bet and lose even more chips.

If someone raised with a hand like pocket Kings and you call with your Ace-rag, your "rag" is useless if it pairs up and chances are you'll bet out with it and lose money. Or you'll see two overcards on the flop and fold to a bet and lose the money you put in at the start. A big pocket pair against Ace-rag is a 67% favourite pre-flop, so you're clearly not putting your money in with the best of it. If you play Ace-rag against a larger Ace like Ace-King, the odds are 70% you'll lose.

Queen-Ten is just a nightmare from start to finish. If someone is playing Aces, Kings, Queens, Ace-Queen, King-Queen or Queen-Jack you're already a dog, and if you pair your Queen or your Ten (in which case you can add the Ace-Ten, pocket jacks and pocket tens having you beat) you can kiss your chips goodbye. While it might be ok sometimes to limp in with Queen-Ten and hope for straight possibilities or hitting two pair, you also have to worry about getting raised like I was in my example and waste more chips playing hands that should have been folded to begin with.

While others might get lucky calling with mediocre hands, remember, in the long run, they will come out short. Don't fall into the trap of "monkey see, monkey do" when someone gets lucky playing lousy starting hands. Avoid those trap hands, play solid values, and although you can't win everytime, you will win more consistently and frequently.

Comments:
ZZZzzzzz...

So predictable. A convenient excuse for all the losing lately... a true Sens fan.
 
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