Friday, October 21, 2005

If you gotta go all-in, go all-in


I will always remember the hand that would eventually cost me any chance of winning the Ottawa Sun poker tournament.

The blinds were going up fast; I couldn’t see cheap flops because I was stuck at the table with the chip leader who was constantly raising. It got to the point were my chip stack was about 1/2 the average stack size, so my next move had to be an all-in to try to double up. Only a few hands away from being the big blind, I looked down at Ace-4 unsuited. Hardly a premium hand, but having an Ace-anything is good enough to go all-in when you’re going to be blinded out if you don't make a move soon. But guess what happened?

I didn’t go all-in.

I hesitated. I was first to act, and at a full table was just too intimidated to move all-in with such a marginal hand. Maybe something better would come up if I waited, I thought. So I decided to fold. The chip leader called and then one of the other short stacks went all-in. Everyone folded except for the chip leader. I quietly applauded myself for having the sixth sense to throw my cards away at this turn of events.

NOT SO FAST! Interestingly enough, both players turned up Ace-Jack. The flop came up rainbow so no flushes were possible, but then the turn card was…a 4. No Jack came up on the river and both players split the pot. If I had gone all-in like I was supposed to and had to do being a short stack, I would have at least doubled or maybe even tripled my chips. And that one move would have guaranteed me at least a spot at the final table as there were only 15 people left at this point. Yes, there would have been a slight b.s. factor in winning that hand, but when you’re bold and make an all-in move, what’s wrong with getting lucky once in awhile? Do you remember all those times when your rockets were cracked by someone holding 7-2? Of course you do, so why can’t you do the same once in a blue moon? (Or about 18% of the time as the odds would calculate)?

The hand that I DID lose with was Jack-9 of clubs. They were suited, they looked pretty, so I pushed all-in with my remaining chips after getting dealt 4 or 5 unplayable hands. The chip leader called me with King-Queen. I had a moment of euphoria when a Jack came on the flop, but it would not hold as a Queen hit the river and I was eliminated. What I didn’t understand is Ace-4 is statistically a better all-in hand that Jack-9 suited, even thought I thought differently at the time. It’s not that much better, but interesting nonetheless that I went all-in with weaker hole cards with more confidence than Ace-4.

You don’t have many choices when you’re short-stacked. Don’t wait to be dealt rockets or cowboys because they AIN’T coming! Don't let your stack get so low that you can get called with anything: if you manage to steal the blinds because your stack is a reasonable size for others not wanting to risk losing chips to you, that's still a good result as it buys you more time. Going all-in with Ace-anything is usually good enough. Any pair is good enough. I’d go all-in with a face card with a 10 or higher kicker, and maybe even a lesser kicker if the cards are suited. Don’t go all-in with two low cards (unless you’re the big blind and it’s bigger than you’re remaining stack) like 3-5 offsuit, something else better (hopefully much better) should come up by the next hand. Remember if you fold in the same manner I did, you would likely been busted out later anyway with a much lesser hand and an even lesser chance of winning the pot and staying alive.

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